According to the business information service Bisnode D&B, the number of insolvencies in Switzerland has fallen by 65 percent since the beginning of the year. At first glance a positive development - but appearances are deceptive. The figures can be traced back to the legal standstill in debt enforcement proceedings ordered by the Federal Council and the subsequent debt enforcement holidays until April 19, 2020. The Federal Council also granted companies goodwill in the event of payment arrears, short-time working or loss of earnings benefits, and quick liquidation assistance. Thus the bankruptcies were merely postponed but not canceled. Thanks to the supporting loans, many companies were able to save themselves at short notice. However, the majority will not be able to repay them.
The insurance expert Euler Hermes also expects a sharp increase in bankruptcies. "The calm before the storm" still prevails in Switzerland at the moment. From autumn, however, the bankruptcy wave will progress around the globe and spread into the entire first half of 2021. For Switzerland, the experts assume an increase in bankruptcies in 2020 and 2021 by a total of 15 percent compared to 2019. Globally, a cumulative increase in insolvencies of 2020 percent is expected for 2021 and 35.
The experts expect a particularly dramatic increase in corporate bankruptcies in the USA (+ 47 percent compared to the previous year), Brazil (+ 32 percent) and China (+ 21 percent). In addition, European countries such as Portugal, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy will probably also be severely affected. Compared to other countries, Switzerland will probably get away with a black eye.
How the insolvency figures develop effectively in the next few months depends primarily on the corona situation worldwide and the associated health policy measures.